Insights

In 2014, I bought shares of GAS after oil prices fell from around $80 per barrel. I believed oil would eventually recover and found plenty of research supporting that view. What I failed to recognize was how confirmation bias was shaping my decisions.

One of the most important investing lessons I learned did not come from markets. It came from a poker table. A good decision can lose money, and a bad decision can make money. The same principle applies to investing, trading, and capital allocation.

Early in my investing career, I made what seemed like an obvious bet: rising oil prices should benefit energy stocks. The outcome taught me an important lesson. Markets are not news. Markets are auctions, where buyers and sellers continuously negotiate the future.

A BTC short put initiated when implied volatility percentile stood at 62 and closed when IVP fell to 40 generated a net profit of $166.08. The trade illustrates a core principle of short volatility investing: profits often come from volatility normalization rather than directional market forecasts.

I once pushed a trading account into a drawdown close to 80% while chasing daily profit targets and protecting a winning streak. The problem was not the strategy. It was position sizing. Here’s the framework I use today to manage risk before thinking about returns.

The First Rule Is Survival One of the biggest investing lessons I learned did not come from a textbook. It came from almost blowing up a trading account. When I started trading seriously, I was obsessed with growth. Like many traders, I set daily profit targets, 2%/day!!! . I wanted consistency. I wanted momentum. Most … Continue reading The First Rule Is Survival →

I started a trading account with just $92 in November 2024. Looking at the equity curve today, the journey appears impressive. What the chart doesn’t show is how close the account came to failure several times. Most traders don’t lose because of bad strategies. They lose because they underestimate risk.

What can investors learn from Japanese restaurants? More than you might think. During a recent trip to Japan, I observed how successful restaurants focus relentlessly on a single objective: serving great food. The same principle applies to investing. In options trading, the ultimate goal is not predicting markets but optimizing the relationship between return and risk. Simplicity, when applied correctly, can be a powerful competitive advantage.

A case study of a Bitcoin long strangle initiated when implied volatility reached historically low levels. The trade demonstrates how volatility expansion, rather than directional forecasting, can create attractive risk-adjusted opportunities.

April 2026 Managing Theta Exposure in a Low Volatility Regime BTC options markets continued to operate under relatively compressed implied volatility conditions throughout April. Lower volatility environments typically reduce option premium opportunities while simultaneously increasing sensitivity to abrupt volatility expansion. As a result, exposure management becomes increasingly important despite the appearance of calmer market conditions. … Continue reading Managing Theta Exposure in a Low Volatility Regime →