Return & Survival Planner

WINVESTOR PLANNING LAB

Can your return target support your life—and survive bad years?

A 65% win rate sounds reassuring. It still tells us very little about whether your capital can pay your living costs for the next 30 years.

Test my plan

THE SIMPLE IDEA

Your bills are certain. Trading returns are not.

Many people begin with the wrong question: “What return do I need to earn each month?” They take their monthly expenses, divide them by their account, and treat the answer as a target.

That target ignores losing streaks, fees, inflation and withdrawals during a drawdown. When the target is too demanding, people often increase trade size. The account then becomes more fragile precisely when their livelihood depends on it.

A sensible plan asks what the capital can survive—not merely what we want it to produce.

FOUR NUMBERS THAT MUST FIT TOGETHER

Return is only one part of the plan

01

Your edge

How often you win and how much winners earn compared with losers.

02

Risk per trade

The account percentage actually lost if the trade reaches its maximum loss—not the position’s notional value.

03

Living withdrawal

Your yearly spending divided by your starting capital. Inflation makes that spending grow.

04

Drawdown tolerance

The decline you can financially and emotionally survive without abandoning the process.

A 65% WIN RATE EXAMPLE

Winning often does not remove losing sequences

65%winning trades
+0.75Raverage winner
−1.00Raverage loser
+0.1375Raverage expectancy

In a 30-year simulation with four trades per month, the median path still experienced six consecutive losses. A high win rate is not protection from a painful sequence.

WHAT THIS CALCULATOR DOES

It creates thousands of possible paths—not one perfect forecast

For every path, the calculator generates wins and losses using your assumptions. It applies your chosen risk, removes living expenses every month, increases those expenses with inflation, and includes an annual cost allowance.

It then reports how many paths remained above zero, how many stayed above your viability floor, and the drawdowns experienced along the way.

It is a stress test, not a promise. The model assumes your win rate and payoff remain stable and that trades are independent. Real markets change and losses can cluster, so reality may be worse.

YOUR TURN

Build your return-and-survival plan

Start honestly. You can change any number and calculate again.

What does R mean?

1R is the amount you plan to lose if one trade reaches its maximum loss. If you risk 1% of your account, −1R means losing 1% and +0.75R means gaining 0.75%, before costs. R lets us compare trades without confusing risk with position value.

What is the viability floor?

This is the lowest account value you consider practically usable. A 25% floor means a 100,000 account becomes non-viable below 25,000—even though it has not reached zero.

What is the viability rate?

After the calculation, this is the percentage of simulated paths that never fell below your viability floor at any time. It is stricter than survival, which only asks whether money remained.

Account risk per trade is the account percentage lost at −1R. Entering 1 means 1%, not 100%. It is not notional exposure or margin.

The target should serve your life. Your life should not be forced to serve the target.

If your plan only works with an extreme return, the useful answer may be more capital, lower or flexible spending, outside income, or more time—not larger trades.

Educational scenario analysis only. This tool does not provide financial advice, predict future performance, or guarantee that any trading strategy will survive.